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Thursday, March 31, 2016

False Narrative's

My Facebook feed is full of Bernie Sander's stories.   Which, to a certain extent, is fine.  I'm a Bernie supporter and have been from day one.  The reason is simple.

I don't believe that the White House is a prize to be passed from Father to Son or from Husband to Wife.

Hope springs eternal
However lets be honest, he needed to win states like Ohio and Illinois.  The fact that he didn't pretty much doomed his campaign.  He didn't lose by much...but a loss is a loss and that made the matches ahead that much more difficult for him. 

If you look at my Facebook feed it seems that people are accepting of the uphill battle, but don't realize exactly how uphill that battle would be.  Bernie needs to flat out win some states and keep it close in others.  That is the only way he could catch Hillary and win the nomination.  Lets forget about the bull shit that is a "super delegate's" for a moment.  That is just in regular old "pledged" delegates.  When you do the math, it doesn't seem likely.  

When you add in the "super delegate's" - who are party insiders who can vote for who ever they wish - then it seems even more unlikely.

I still support Sander's.  Do not misunderstand me.  A lot of people, including me, are angry at the "one percent" for a variety of reasons.   We see this with the raise of Donald Trump on the right and the surge of Bernie Sanders on the left.   We are angry about the future, the economy and that one simple law of economics seems to be forgotten by the one percent.  People need money to buy shit.

There are some big states coming up.  New York and my home state of Pennsylvania are the big prizes.  Both of these states are closed primary states.   Now I'm not suggesting any chicanery is going on, unlike other Bernie believers, but he doesn't do well is states with closed primaries.   I'm not sure of the reason why.

I expect Bernie to win Wisconsin, which is an open primary state and one where independents can vote.  I also expect him to win Rhode Island.   The reason why is simple.   Bernie attracts a lot of non affiliated or independent minded voters.     These votes currently make up something like 42% of the current electorate. Frankly the other states that have primaries in April are all closed primary states.  With the exception of Wyoming which is a caucus state and he should win that one as well.

He is dead one most of the time
However again, he either needs to win in New York, with it's 247 pledged delegates, or keep it very close.  Same with Pennsylvania which has 189 pledged delegates.   Notice that I'm not talking about the "super delegates."  These are party insiders that are more interested in saving their asses than anything.    If it somehow goes to the convention with Bernie ahead that's when they will come into play.   That's when the party will have to make some hard choices.

That's where the Bernie or Bust pledge comes in.

I took this pledge.  I am sticking with my principles and will not be voting for HRC if she wins the nomination.   I'll most likely vote Green.  I'll definitely be voting for the progressives running in Congress as well. 

The main argument I'm hearing against the Bernie or Bust Pledge is that it's a wasted vote because that means we give the White House to Trump or Cruz.   Again that is a false narrative.   The Republicans are in the midst of a full out inter party Civil War. 

They don't like Trump for a variety of reasons but they also realize that he is their best shot of at least winning the White House in name only...a lot of what he says is a combination of not being a politician, playing the media and his own ego.  His polices are a jumble of things that borrow from both sides of the political spectrum. 

The biggest issue however, is that he is not a "real conservative" which is just lip service for "he's not one of us."   There is a long but amazing story detailing how the GOP lost to Trump in the New York Times and it's worth a read. 

It seems unlikely that Donald would be willing to work with the GOP elite, or them with him, if and when he wins the nomination.   I fully expect a brokered convention where Cruz or, in my opinion, the better choice of John Kasich in nominated as the Republican candidate.  Trump runs as a third party option thus splitting the Republican ticket and the lesser of two evils wins. 

The only way I might break my pledge is that if the race really is close, as in 5% going into election day.  The Democrats will have no one but themselves to blame then putting up a rather weak HRC against Trump.  It's not that I want to save the collective ass of my party.  No, it's because I don't want a Republican to be choosing a Supreme Court justice.   It's very likely that you will see at least one or two...perhaps three picks in the next four to eight years.  That is the only narrative that I can get behind.

For me, "Bernie or Bust" is about sending a message.   My party has failed me.   So yes, I will vote Green in November to send a message.  Let's hope my party is listening because I will continue to fight for what I feel is right.

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